A Few Sox Observations

I’m going to say what everyone else is saying just because it needs to be said, “sign Jason Bay now”.

David Ortiz is starting to hit the ball hard. He had the bomb and the double on Wednesday night and then last night he pulled everything, including a ground ball to 2nd to score Ellsbury on third and a hard line drive that happened to go right to 2nd baseman Aaron Hill who was standing in short right field. This is a good sign that he is finally starting to catch up to the fastball.

If this is the case and he does come out of it, I’d like to thank Toronto pitcher Brett Cecil for serving up the bomb to him on Wednesday night (as well as the other 4) and getting him on his way. And yes, this is a veiled dig at my friend who picked up Cecil in our fantasy league a couple of weeks ago.

I don’t know if anyone is ever going to break Joltin’ Joe’s 56 game hitting streak. If I had to bet on it, I would bet against it. But Jacoby Ellsbury is on a roll right now and with his speed and the type of hitter he is, he could go a long way with this 16 game hitting streak.

Also, in today’s day and age with all of the advanced scouting, video and pitching specialization, I don’t think anyone is ever going to hit .400 again. But Kevin Youkilis has a very good chance to win a batting title. As Eck said last night, this guy just keeps getting better and he adapts to the situation. He’s hitting .402 with a .508 OBP and a 1.210 OPS. Holy crap!

Toronto is a decent baseball team but their pitching is very young after Halliday and I still believe that they will end up in 4th in the AL East and this series is the start of their slide. 

Don’t look now but the Yankees are playing great baseball and are right on our butts, right where we want them to be. Now this starts to get fun.

Looking at some numbers

I know it’s early and I know these numbers will be different by the end of the season, but I still felt the need to post them now.

Jason Bay- BA .344, OPS 1.211, HR 5, RBI 19, RUNS 16

Manny Ramirez- BA .338, OPS 1.023, HR 4, RBI 14, RUNS 14

Mike Lowell- BA .319, OPS .966, HR 4, RBI 22, RUNS 9

Mark Teixeira- BA .220, OPS .780, HR 3, RBI 10, RUNS 9

2009 Outlook

I will start this entry with a caveat- I am biased towards this baseball team. Obviously this is not a surprise to anyone, but I still felt like it was necessary to mention.

The ESPN Power Rankings came out on Saturday and the Boston Red Sox are ranked number one, followed very closely by the Tampa Bay Rays and the New York Yankees. These are not the AL East rankings, these are the Major League Baseball rankings. It just so happens that the top 3 teams are from the AL East. I happen to agree with them. Although I believe that these teams are about as closely matched as any 3 teams could possibly be, especially in the same division, I am giving the edge to my Red Sox. 

When I look at this team on paper, I see the possibility of it being the most complete team this franchise has ever fielded, and possibly one of the most complete teams ever fielded by any Major League Baseball franchise.

As always, it starts with pitching and there is no doubt in my mind that this is the deepest pitching staff, 1-12, that I have ever seen put together in Boston. Of course there are questions- is Josh Beckett completely healthy and ready to make a comeback from an injury plagued ‘08 season, is Jon Lester ready to take the next step to greatness, is Daisuke Matsuzaka ready to step it up to the next level after 2 ML seasons, is Tim Wakefield capable of still competing, is Brad Penny healthy and ready to make it back, does John Smoltz have one more season (or half season) left in that 41 year old (soon to be 42) surgically repaired right shoulder, is Clay Buchholz ready to live up to his potential? In the bullpen- can Manny Delcarmen put his great stuff together and become the pitcher he was projected to be, can Justin Masterson continue to adapt to his new role as a set up man, will Takashi Saito’s 39-year old partially torn elbow ligament hold up, will Ramon Ramirez continue to put up the great numbers he posted in the Kansas City bullpen last season? 

It’s not likely that every one of these pitchers is going to pan out, but the beauty of this pitching staff, along with it’s potential talent, is it’s depth. We don’t need every single one of them to pan out, just most of them, and I like the chances of that happening. 

Josh Beckett never really got it together right from the beginning last season. He started with a stiff back, had some elbow problems in August, and then ended the season with a torn oblique. Of course the rap on Beckett when we traded for him was that he was injury prone. And even though he has had some injuries that have affected his pitching and even caused him to miss some starts since he came over here, he managed to reach 200 innings in his first two seasons here, something he never did in Florida. Last season was a tough one, with 3 separate injuries causing him to make only 27 starts and throw 174 innings, but he looks to be healthy right now and if he can stay healthy he is one of the top pitchers in the game.

In his first full season in the Big Leagues last year, Jon Lester made 33 starts, pitched 210 innings, won 16 games and posted a 3.21 ERA. In addition he made 4 starts in the post season and posted a 2.36 ERA, and he went 9-3 with a 2.95 ERA after the All-Star Break. He showed that at 25 years old he can handle the load for the entire season and that he’s ready to take it to the next level. It’s quite possible that he will be the best pitcher on the staff this year and one of the top pitchers in the game. I think a Cy Young is a very real possibility.

Dice-K had a tough time making the adjustments to the Major Leagues in his first season in 2007. Despite this he still managed to throw 204 innings and win 15 games. In ‘08 he dropped his ERA over an entire run, from 4.40 to 2.90, unfortunately he had trouble with his control and his brutal walk total actually increased. Despite this, he always seemed to minimize the damage and actually won 18 games, but because he had thrown so many pitches he ended up leaving a lot of games early and put stress on the bullpen. All he really needs to do is throw more strikes and cut down on his walk total and with 2 seasons now under his belt, I think this is the year he does it.

Tim Wakefield is currently pencilled in as the number 4 starter. He is the ultimate pro, a fan favorite (including me) and is respected by everyone in the game. He is also a 42 year old knuckleball pitcher who has been plagued with shoulder problems for the last two seasons. He is always capable of going on a streak where he is almost unhittable, but with his age and shoulder problems, combined with the depth of the starting staff, I don’t think that Terry Francona can leave him in the rotation too long if he’s not getting the job done. Having said that, he still managed to make 30 starts last season and post his best ERA (4.13) since 2003. Not a bad guy to have around to give you innings when you need them. 

Brad Penny was a very good pitcher over 8 years for the Florida Marlins and LA Dodgers before shoulder problems cut him down to just 17 starts for the Dodgers in ‘08 with a 6.27 ERA. At age 30 the Dodgers decided to buy him out for 2 million instead of paying him the 8.75 million they would have had to pay him to pitch for them in ‘09. That opened the door for Theo to take a chance for 5 million and incentives. Penny seems to be over the shoulder problems and is pencilled in as the 5th starter. If he is in fact over the shoulder problems he could be a number 3 starter, and probably number 2, for many other teams. That’s a pretty good guy to have going in the number 5 spot.

If Penny can’t go or Wakefield can’t get it done, Clay Buchholz is waiting in the wings in Pawtucket. Buchholz was the best pitcher in Sox camp this year, posting a 0.46 ERA in his first 19.2 innings before getting roughed up in his last start for 6 runs in 5.1 innings against the Rays. At 24, he looks ready to claim his spot in the rotation and go on to have a great career in the Major Leagues.

Another Epstein reclamation project to go along with Penny is future Hall of Famer John Smoltz. Smoltz is coming of off a lost year after having shoulder surgery in June and is not yet ready to pitch. He starts the season on the DL and is hoping to be ready by mid May. I think it’s more realistic to expect to see him in a Sox uniform sometime in June. If he comes all the way back, or even most of the way back, he goes into what may already be the best rotation in the game right now, or there is the possibility that he goes into one of the best bullpens in the league. Either way, it’s like getting one of the best arms available in a mid-season trade without giving anything up to get him.

I do not recall the last time we had this much depth in starting pitching, probably never. In ‘06 when Theo thought we had so much depth that he traded Bronson Arroyo to the Reds for Wily Mo, the pitching talent wasn’t even close to what we have now. Only the Yankees, and possibly the Rays can match our top 3, and only the Yankees can match our top 5, but even they can’t match the depth we have. 

And that’s just the starting pitching, when you add the bullpen to that I don’t think anyone can come close to matching us in overall pitching talent and depth. Starting at the top, Jonathan Papelbon seems to be over the shoulder issues that gave everyone a scare at the end of ‘06. There really isn’t much that needs to be said about him, he is now one of the elite closers in the game and many experts have him ranked as number one. The only question left with him is how much longer he is going to pitch for Boston. We have control over him until the 2011 season, but he seems content to go year to year and with Daniel Bard waiting in the wings, the Sox may not be all that interested in paying him the money it might take to keep him here when the time comes. But we’ll worry about that then.

Hideki Okajima was signed mostly as a guy to help keep Dice-K comfortable in his transition to the states. Of course, Oki can pitch, you don’t sign a player who can’t play the game just so you can keep your 100 million dollar investment happy. But no one, and I mean no one, expected him to do what he has done over the last 2 seasons. He pitched 131 innings in relief, posting a 2.41 ERA with 6 wins, 6 saves and 50 holds. He did have a tough couple of months at the end of ‘07 when the league seemed to figure out the quirky delivery and he was clearly wearing down after having been used so much. He also went through a couple of rough patches in ‘08, but he made the adjustments and he’s proven that as long as he doesn’t get overused he is one of the most effective set up men in the game right now.

Justin Masterson has shown that he is ready to pitch in the Big Leagues and that he is capable of doing it as either a starter or a reliever. With the depth in the rotation he is going to share the role with Oki as one of Paps set up men. If it wasn’t for Papelbon I think this guy could be the closer right now and there are quite a few teams out there who would love to have him in that role. In his first full season in the Bigs he threw 88.1 innings and posted a 3.16 ERA overall. This included 34.1 innings as a reliever where he posted a 2.36 ERA. He was solid all year, especially when he went to the pen and although it’s possible that hitters will figure him out and make adjustments he displayed the poise to inspire confidence that he will make the adjustments with them.

Ramon Ramirez had a solid rookie campaign for the Colorado Rockies in 2006. Overall he threw 67.2 innings and posted a 3.46 ERA. And that was with 43.1 of those innings coming at Coors Field. When he was away from Coors he posted a 1.48 ERA in 24.1 innings. Unfortunately he had some elbow issues at the beginning of 2007. It ended up being a lost year for him and the Rockies pretty much gave him away to the Royals where he came back in 2008 by posting a 2.64 ERA in 71.2 innings. Fortunately for the Red Sox, the Royals really needed an outfielder for ‘09 and we had an extra one in Coco Crisp. By giving up our outfield depth we were able to sure up a taxed bullpen and Ramirez should be expected to continue to put up very good numbers while coming into games in the mid to late innings for us.

Javier Lopez has had a strange ride with us since he was traded back to the organization in 2006. He was a victim of numbers and spent some time riding the I-95 shuttle as a result even though he managed to pitch effectively for the most part. A left handed pitcher, he actually had some trouble getting left handers out. In ‘06 they batted .250 against him and that ballooned to .293 in ‘07. But strangely he was holding right handers to a .208 BA in ‘06 and it was all the way down to .176 in ‘07. Those splits made it tough for Francona to manage him. In ‘08 he made it even tougher to figure him out by turning it around completely. Right handers started bashing him around for a .311 average while lefties only hit .182 against him. Overall he’s been a solid reliever, it’s going to be a matter of Francona figuring out which Lopez he’s going to get to determine how to use him effectively.  

Two of the big wild cards in this pen are Manny Delcarmen and Takashi Saito. Manny really seemed to be putting it all together at the end of last season. He posted a 3.27 ERA in 74.1 innings and hitters only managed a .205 average against him. In the second half he threw 34.2 innings and posted a 1.82 ERA with a .161 BAA. But he had a tough time in the playoffs. After throwing 4 scoreless innings he gave up 7 runs in his next 2 innings while walking 5 batters. His Spring Training wasn’t any better as he walked 6 and gave up 18 hits in 13.2 innings. Control has always been a problem for him. When he’s on he’s practically unhittable, but at 27 going into his 4th Major League season, it’s time for him to take it to the next level. 

Takashi Saito came over to the Dodgers from Japan in 2006 and was a very good closer for them for 2 1/2 seasons before going down with a partially torn elbow ligament in July of ‘08. He wasn’t quite the same pitcher when he came back in September and with the emergence of Jonathan Broxton the Dodgers decided not to take a chance on him for ‘09. Instead the Red Sox will find out if the elbow can hold up for him. At 39 he’s going to pitch until he can’t pitch anymore and hope that he has at least one more year left. If he does, he puts our bullpen over the top, and if not, we still have one of the top pens in the league. 

There is also the chance that we have 5 starters pitching so well in May or June that when John Smoltz comes back it is decided that he is best utilized to give us even more depth in the pen. The one thing this bullpen is missing is a typical long relief man, but with the depth in both the starting rotation and the bullpen it doesn’t seem necessary to carry a guy like that. 

I think that this is the best bullpen in the Major Leagues to go along with the best starting pitching; which of course gives us an overall pitching staff that is unrivaled in baseball.

On offense we were all over the top in most categories for last season. We ranked third in runs scored with 845, third in batting average at .280, first in on base percentage at .358 and second in OPS at .805, just to name a few. This season is going to be a little different and as with the pitching, there are some questions. Is Jacoby Ellsbury ready for the Major Leagues, can Dustin Pedroia continue to put up MVP numbers, is David Ortiz’ wrist healed, is he slowing down and can he hit without Manny behind him, can J.D. Drew stay healthy and put up good numbers, can Mike Lowell rebound from hip surgery, can Jed Lowrie hit all season and what can we really expect from Jason Varitek?

Fist of all, with the pitching staff we have, we are not going to need to score 845 runs again this season. Having said that I don’t see any reason why we don’t score at least 800 runs. 

If Ellsbury is going to be the lead off hitter he is going to need to get on base more. But he did hit .280 last season, .290 after the break, and when he gets on base he causes all kinds of havoc for opposing pitchers. He also got on base enough to score 98 runs and he looks like he’s ready to take the next step. 

There really isn’t much that has to be said about Dustin Pedroia. In fact his ‘08 season can be summed up with 3 letters, MVP. Is he going to repeat as the AL MVP? Hard to say, but is he going to continue to put up those same kinds of numbers? The guy has done nothing but hit at every level he’s ever played at despite the fact that no one ever seems to believe he can. It’s time for the remaining doubters to pack it in and become believers. This guy is the real deal and he’s the spark that makes this engine go.

I don’t think that David Ortiz is done, in fact I think he’s far from it. Is he going to be the Big Papi he was from ‘04-’07? Probably not, but he doesn’t have to be either. I don’t believe the hype about him being out of shape and slowing down. I believe that most of his “hitting problems” last season stemmed from the wrist injury and it takes some time to come back from that type of injury. Even with the injury he still managed to hit .277 with 10 home runs after the break. Now that he’s had more time for it to heal I think we’re going to see a better Big Papi this year. I also don’t put a lot of stock into the belief that he was a better hitter with Manny behind him, even though he also seems to believe it. I don’t think there are many teams in this league who are going to be in a hurry to put Ortiz on base so they can then pitch to Kevin Youkilis, J.D. Drew and Jason Bay. Especially when Ellsbury and Pedroia are already on base ahead of him.

Is there anything that Kevin Youkilis can’t do with a bat in his hands? You put him at the top of the order and he gets on base. You put him in the middle of the order and he drives in runs. You trade away your clean up hitter, you just stick him in the spot and watch him go. Okay, so he doesn’t have the speed of your prototypical lead off hitter and he doesn’t have the power of your prototypical clean up hitter, but all he does is hit the ball and get on base. He adapts to the situation he’s in and does what needs to be done. I don’t know if I expect to see him hit 28 home runs again, but he’s easily going to drive in 100 and be on base 39% of the time for the guys behind him. And he’s going to make life miserable for opposing starting pitchers as he grinds out at bat after at bat. 

J.D. Drew is going to bat 5th against right handers because Terry Francona likes to go left right, left right as much as he can. When Drew is not hurt he can hit and get on base. The question, which is always the question and always will be the question, is how many games is he going to play? He played 140 games for us in ‘06 (which is quite good for him) and only 109 last season. The back problems that plagued him last season seem to still be there and it looks like this could be another one of those years where he’s closer to the 109 than the 140. I think a big reason why the Sox brought Mark Kotsay back is so he can fill in for Drew when he goes on one of his 5-10 day spells of not being able to play. 

Jason Bay is going into his fifth full season and I think it’s pretty safe to pencil him in for a .280 BA and .370 OBP with 30 home runs and 100 RBI. He’s about as solid a hitter as you’re going to see in this league.

Mike Lowell is clearly not fully recovered from his hip surgery. But it seems like the only thing it’s really affecting is his base running. I’m guessing that we’ll be seeing a lot of Nick Green (and later Julio Lugo) doing some pinch running for him late in games until he shows that he can handle it. In the meantime, I don’t see any reason why he doesn’t hit .280 with 20 homers and 90 RBI out of the 7 hole. 

With Julio Lugo out for April, Jed Lowrie starts the season as our shortstop. There was always the question of how much he could hit in the Major Leagues and last season a non-displaced wrist fracture prevented everyone from finding out that answer. However the fact that he still managed to hit .254 with a .345 OBP while playing most of the season with a fractured wrist tells me that the guy is going to be just fine. He showed some pop in the minors and now that the wrist is fully healed we might just see some of that show up this season. I know I saw an example of it Saturday afternoon at Citi Field in New York.

We know that Jason Varitek’s best days as a hitter are behind him. The question now is whether or not he can still hit enough to prevent him from being a liability in the lineup. Near the end of Spring Training he started showing some signs that he might still have a little something left in his bat. It’s probably not much, but with the pitching we have and the rest of the batting order in front of him, we really don’t need it to be much as long as he continues to handle the pitching staff the way he always does, and as long as he’s willing to accept the fact that he is going to get pinch hit for in certain situations, especially considering the hitters we’re going to have on the bench.

This team is going to continue to score a lot of runs. And they will do it a lot of different ways. They grind out at bats and drive starters out of the games to get to the other teams bullpens. They can hit home runs, they have a few guys who can steal bases, they can bunt and they can hit and run. They also have a couple of guys who can come off the bench and get the job done when called upon. We’re going to see little bit of everything this season.

Last season we were ranked 7th out of 30 teams in fielding percentage at .986 and 7th in errors made with 85. This season, although we lose Crisp in center and there is going to be some question about Mike Lowell’s hip, we replace Crisp with Ellsbury. We also get Jason Bay in place of Manny for the entire year and Jed Lowrie replaces Julio Lugo at shortstop. Our defense should be just as solid as it was last season and possibly even a little better. 

I once heard a comparison of Rocco Baldelli to Joe Dimaggio. I thought that was pretty unfair to Baldelli. No one should have to try to live up to a hitter like that. Still, when Rocco was healthy he was a very good hitter and fielder. The problem now is that he is probably never going to be fully healthy again and he is probably going to be a bench player for the rest of his career. Hey, there are worse things in life to be then the 4th outfielder for the Boston Red Sox. I know it’s tough to convince him of that, but it is the truth. If one of our 3 outfielders goes down for any extended period of time Rocco is not going to be the answer. But right now he is going to be the perfect guy to spell Drew or Ellsbury against tough left handers or to use as a pinch hitter. For a fourth outfielder, you probably couldn’t find a better player.

Nick Green holds down the fort for the time being at the utility infielder position. I don’t know what’s going to happen when Lugo comes back but you can read my opinion in a previous entry. Regardless, it’s the utility infielder role, a role that Alex Cora held for the last few years and did a decent job of it. All you really want from the position is someone who will play good defense as they spell an infielder a few times a month. At 30 years old Green has been with a bunch of different teams and has only played in 275 Major League games posting a .240 BA with no pop and no speed. He had a great spring, but with Lugo coming back at the end of the month he’s probably not going to be around long. It’s tough to gage this position because we don’t know what Lugo is going to be capable of when he comes back or what role he is even going to fill. Either way if it’s Lugo starting and Lowrie in the utility position or the other way around, we should have ourselves a pretty useful utility player.

I would say that the only surprise of Spring Training was the decision to release Josh Bard and go with George Kottaras as the back up catcher. With Jason Varitek’s offense slipping away, the back up catcher becomes even more important than just who can catch a knuckleball. Tek is going to be given more days off this season than he has had in the past and he is also going to be pinch hit for more often, so whoever is occupying that back up spot is going to see more action behind the plate than any catcher in the recent past. Right now that person is Kottaras. He is the guy we got as the player to be named when we sent David Wells back home to San Diego in 2006. He’s only 25 and he has no Major League experience. He has the reputation of having a good bat with a lot of work to be done on defense. At this point even his bat isn’t projecting to what was expected and he might end up being nothing more than a career backup catcher. He was kept because the Sox were out of options on him and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him end up as a throw in if the Sox make a trade to upgrade at catcher. For now, it looks like our catching is going to be pretty weak offensively but I don’t expect it to remain that way all season.

Mark Kotsay was supposed to occupy the last spot on the bench. He was expected to be able to fill in at all 3 outfield spots as well as first base to spell Youk and to move Youk to 3rd to spell Lowell. But mostly I think he was brought back as insurance for Drew. Unfortunately Kotsay had some back problems of his own and is not expected back until mid-May. In the meantime, Chris Carter gets the call. Carter has played both outfield corners and first base but he really isn’t a very good fielder. He has the reputation of being a good hit, no field player. His minor league numbers would suggest that his left handed bat has potential, and he would probably be starting in the Big Leagues for quite a few other teams right now. But there is just no open spot on this team right now so it’s not likely that we’re going to get a chance to find out what he can do anytime soon and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him included in a deal at some point this season.

Overall the bench is not bad. We’re probably going to have to upgrade at catcher at some point and if there is any kind of significant injury in the outfield we’ll probably have to make a trade, but it should be fine to handle the day to day operations.

I don’t think Terry Francona gets enough credit for what he does here. In 5 seasons in Boston he has a .580 winning percentage, he’s made the playoffs 4 times, he’s won 2 pennants and 2 World Series titles. What more do you want from this guy? He’s the best manager this team has had for the 34 years that I’ve been watching them and you’d be hard pressed to find a better manager in Red Sox history. With 5 full seasons under his belt he is also the longest tenured manager during my watch and you have to go all the way back to the 40’s to find a guy (Joe Cronin) who spent more time on the hot seat than him. This guy wins baseball games, he is very good at handling players as well as managing the pitching staff and he is a superb handler of the Boston media, something that is not easy to do and something that he NEVER seems to get any credit for. He’s probably going to be here for a while longer (assuming his health holds up) and if he wins one or two more World Series Championships he is probably going to go on to the Red Sox Hall of Fame. An argument could be made to put him in there right now. 

I also think that the rest of the coaching staff doesn’t get enough credit either. Bench coach Brad Mills should be managing another MLB team right now and he is most likely going to be at some point. John Farrell has done an outstanding job as pitching coach, Dave Magadan has been a very good hitting coach and DeMarlo Hale is going into his 4th season as 3rd base coach. Third base coaches are like umpires, if you don’t notice them it means that they are doing a good job and that is the case with Hale. I still don’t really know what happened with Luis Alicea at first base, but Francona decided to go in another direction and Tim Bogar takes over the role.

If it weren’t for the fact that we have to play the Yankees and Rays 38 times this season, I would pick this team to win 100 games. As it is, I think we’ll still get close to that. I’ve seen 98 as a number a few times and I like it so I’m going to go with it. This team wins 98 games, which will give them the AL East title and then we bring home our 3rd World Series Championship in 6 years.

“The Steal” Retires

In today’s Boston Globe, Nick Cafardo notes that he was given first hand information from Dave Roberts that he was going to announce his retirement in the next few days instead of undergoing yet another knee operation. 

Dave Roberts had a pretty unremarkable baseball career. He played 10 seasons in the Major Leagues for 5 different teams, but injuries (mostly knee related) limited him to only 832 games during that time. He posted a career batting average of .266 and an OBP of .342. Speed was his game, when his knees allowed it. He amassed 243 stolen bases at an 81% success rate in those 832 games, an average of 47 stolen bases over a 162 game schedule. 

Most players with those kinds of numbers, even with the stolen bases, retire and pass on to baseball obscurity, but that was not to be the destiny of Dave Roberts.

He started the 2004 season the same way he started the previous 2 seasons, as the starting center fielder for the LA Dodgers. With the emergence of Jason Worth in LA, Roberts became expendable and at the deadline, he was traded to Boston as Theo Epstein was looking for some outfield depth. He ended up getting into 45 games in Boston while filling in for an injured Trot Nixon, but when the playoffs started, Nixon was ready and Roberts found himself in an unfamiliar role of sitting on the bench. The Sox played a total of 14 games during the 2004 playoffs and Dave Roberts made exactly 2 appearances, both as a pinch runner. But it was those 2 pinch running assignments, most notably the first one, that set up his date with destiny and elevated him to legendary status.

With the Sox down 4-3 and their season about to end in a sweep by the Yankees in the ALCS, Kevin Millar lead off the ninth inning by drawing a walk off of Mariano Rivera and Roberts was brought in to run for Millar. Roberts had one assignment and everyone in the world who was watching the game knew what it was- steal second base. It was either that or go home. Maury Wills once said to him, “there will come a point in your career when everyone in the ballpark will know that you have to steal a base, and you will steal that base”. So there he was standing on first with the words of Wills running through his head. This was the moment Wills was talking about.

Rivera threw over 3 times to keep him honest with the last throw a little too close for comfort. As Rivera finally threw home, Roberts broke for second. The pitch was a little high and a little outside, a perfect pitch for Jorge Posada to catch and fire down to second base. The throw was a little to the left of the bag and Derek Jeter had to reach back to get it before he could apply the tag to Roberts arm. But Roberts had such a great jump that his hand was already on second base as the tag was applied. He jumped up and pumped his fist as his teammates and everyone in the park (everyone in Red Sox Nation) went wild. The hard part was over, now all he needed was for someone to drive him in. Bill Mueller showed bunt on the next pitch but took a strike. Mueller then ripped the next pitch back up the middle past Rivera and into center field. Bernie Williams throw was cut off as Roberts came around to score the tying run. 

Although the stolen base was a great play, at the time it was nothing more than that. It wasn’t until the Sox went on to win that game in extra innings, win the next 3 to beat the Yankees, and then sweep the Cardinals in the World Series that it passed on to legendary status to become known simply as “The Steal”. If you mention “The Steal” to any Red Sox fan, and probably almost any baseball fan, they will know exactly what you are referring to. There has never been a more celebrated stolen base in Red Sox history and if there is one in baseball history, I don’t know what it is. 

What most people tend to forget about is that he played a similar role in game 5. Again with the Sox down 4-3, this time in the 8th inning, he pinch ran for Millar who again had led off the inning with a walk. Although Roberts did not steal second this time, he managed to keep Yankees pitcher Tom Gordon distracted. Trot Nixon singled to second advancing Roberts to third base where he was driven in with a sac fly by Jason Varitek.

However, it is “The Steal” that became the defining moment of his career. This is the moment that he will always be remembered for. It is one of the most memorable moments in Red Sox, and baseball, history. It turned a man who was just an ordinary baseball player into a Red Sox legend. To his credit he has not only accepted it, he has embraced it. Most players would prefer to be remembered for what they accomplished over their entire career, but Dave Roberts knows what he did, he knows what it meant and he knows that being remembered for one play is better than not being remembered at all. He also knows that he will never have to pay for another drink or another meal in the city of Boston for the rest of his life. 

Some time this week Dave Roberts is going to officially announce his retirement. And sometime during that announcement someone is going to ask him about “The Steal” and he is going to be happy to talk about it as he always is whenever someone asks him about it. 

Here in Boston we are going to note the retirement of another 2004 World Champion and offer him our thanks for his contributions to that team, because without them, we would never have had our World Championship.

Schilling Retires

So, Curt Schilling has made his retirement official and with that another original ‘04 Champion cuts ties with the Sox. Love him or hate him, there is no denying that he had a pretty good career and without him we might be going on 91 years. At the very least, we might have had to wait 89 years instead of 86. In 2004, there is a pretty good chance that we don’t win the Wild Card and make it to the playoffs without his 21 wins, in fact, I’ll go on record as saying we don’t. Even if we do, there is almost no doubt that we don’t get past the Yankees without his performance in game 6 of the ALCS. 

In 2007, we might have still managed to pull off the division without him, or at least we probably would have won the Wild Card to get to the playoffs, but we might not get past the Indians in the ALCS without his performance in game 6 yet again. Although not as heroic as his ‘04 performance, every bit as important as we were again in a must win situation down three games to two. Of course, the way Fausto Carmona pitched for the Indians in that game, we might have still won even if we let Julian Tavarez start it and Eric Gagne finish it. Regardless, my point is that Curt Schilling offered major contributions to both of our championship seasons, most notably the first one, and we might not have them without him.

I for one am a fan. Sure there were times when I wished he would have kept his mouth shut (even he admits that), but it was all part of the package, you had to to take the bad with the good, and there was a lot more good. Not just what he did on the field, but his tireless contributions to charities, most notably his battle to kill ALS and his wife’s SHADE Foundation to fight skin cancer. He occasionally rubbed people the wrong way, apparently even some of his teammates, but he was always willing to take the ball when it was his turn and almost always gave his team a chance to win the game, especially in October.

As for his Hall of Fame credentials, it’s going to be interesting. He falls a little short in one of the most important categories, wins, with only 216. He only made 6 All-Star teams and never won a Cy Young, although he finished 2nd three times and 4th once. But he has built up a reputation as being one of the best post season pitchers in the history of the game, racking up an 11-2 record with a 2.23 ERA in 19 starts. He only had 2 bad starts, both in the ALCS and both were game 2 starts before his two game six starts in ‘04 and ‘07, and he had a really good excuse for his bad start in ‘04. He also started 7 World Series games and went 3-1 with a 2.06 ERA, including that impressive series against the Yankees in ‘01 when he started 3 games for the D-Backs while pitching 21.1 innings and giving up only 4 runs. No baseball fan will ever forget his game 7 in which he started on 3 days rest, held the Yankees scoreless for the first 6, gave up a run in the 7th and pitched into the 8th where he gave up a home run to Alfonso Soriano and was finally relieved a couple of batters later. And of course, no one in Boston (or NY) needs to be reminded about the Bloody Sock.

It’s tough to vote him in based on stats alone. But if you watched him pitch in those post season games, as most writers have, it would be tough not to vote for him. Having watched him pitch in most of those games myself, I would have to give him the vote, it’s not always just about the numbers.

Baseball Hall of Fame or not, he certainly will make it into the Red Sox Hall of Fame. This man walked into Fenway Park at the end of ‘03 and announced to The Nation and the baseball world that he came here for one purpose, to break The Curse. He then went on to put up one of the best seasons ever by a Red Sox (or any) pitcher and finished it off by doing exactly what he said he was going to do. 

So Curt, thanks for helping us get rid of that damn Curse and thanks for the championships.

Clay for Salty

I want to start this by saying that I have decided against trying to make money with this blog. It turned out that there was way too much pressure. I want to write because I feel like writing, not because I feel like I need to write, and when you’re writing to try to make money it just puts a lot of pressure on you to keep putting up content even when you don’t feel like it or have nothing to say. So that’s it, when I have something to say, I’ll put it up here. 

Now for today’s subject. In Nick Cafardo’s article in the Globe today he mentions that he would do the Clay Buchholz for Jared Saltalamacchia deal right now. I couldn’t agree with him more. I’ve been saying this for a couple of months now and frankly I don’t understand why it hasn’t happened yet. 

This is a trade of “needs and surplus”. The Sox need a catcher and have some pitching to trade, the Rangers need some pitching (as always) and have a catcher to trade. The Rangers want to make the trade straight up, but Theo and the brass seem to think that Buchholz is a better prospect than Salty and want the Rangers to put in another player. I think it’s crazy. They’re probably right that Buchholz is a better prospect, but so what? It’s not like this is Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson; which, by the way, I have always supported because we got the player we needed at the time to make a run to the playoffs.

This is a trade of two high ceilinged prospects who are filling needs for each team. Buchholz may end up being the better of the two in the long run, but right now he has shown nothing but inconsistency in the Big Leagues, and no matter how much potential he may have, there is no sure thing in baseball. Meanwhile, in 154 games over two seasons with Atlanta and Texas, Salty has hit 14 home runs with a .267 batting average and a 91 OPS+, which is just slightly under the league average of 100. At 24, he is still developing as a player and is almost certainly going to become at least a league average hitting catcher, with the potential to become much more than that. He definitely still has work to do on defense, as well as game calling, but that’s even more of a reason to get him over here now, while Jason Varitek is still with us. Why not get him here now when he can learn from a guy who is considered one of the best at calling a game and is unmatched at game preparation? On top of that, he can split time with Tek behind the plate right now to help keep him fresh for the entire season.

I’m not buying into the “personal catcher for Tim Wakefield” theory anymore. I love Wake, and I respect what he’s done for this team, but he’s just not important enough to warrant a catcher taking up a roster spot solely for his ability to handle a knuckleball and I think that he’d be first one to say that. Especially when that roster spot could be used for our “catcher of the future in training”. Tek can handle the knuckleball just fine while Salty continues to hone his defensive skills while handling our more conventional pitchers. 

It is always difficult to find good pitching and no team can ever have enough. But in recent years we have seen that there is a shortage of good catchers as well. So, although it would be crazy to call our pitching situation a surplus, it is definitely an area of strength, whereas we are clearly hurting in the catching department. So even if Buchholz is a better prospect and turns out to be worth more than just Salty in return, it doesn’t matter, we can afford to give up a little more to get something back that we are having such a difficult time acquiring.

If none of the above is a good enough reason to make this trade, then how about this? How cool would it be to have a catcher whose nickname is “Salty”.

Come Theo, pull the trigger already.

Starting Shortstop

As I’ve mentioned before, more than once, I was not a fan of the Julio Lugo signing and could never understand what Theo and Red Sox management saw in investing 27 million dollars over 3 years on the guy, and I am clearly not in the minority here. Having said that, I think that he should start the season as the starting shortstop, for a few reasons.

Reason number one- like it or not, Jed Lowrie is better suited for the utility infielder role. Yes, Lugo can play second base, and can probably play third base adequately, but Lowrie is probably a better second baseman and definitely a better third baseman, and with Mike Lowell working his way back from hip surgery and Mark Kotsay out until May, Lowrie will probably see some time early in the season at third base anyway. 

Reason number two- Lowrie is a young player trying to earn a spot on the team and although he is not going to like it, he is not going to complain about being the utility infielder. He’s going to keep his mouth shut and go out there and give it his all every time he gets the opportunity. That will probably not be the case with Lugo. He will most likely complain about it, start requesting to be traded and become a distraction in the clubhouse. You could say “too bad for Lugo” and you’d be right, but it wouldn’t change the fact that it would happen and the Sox don’t need that kind of distraction in the clubhouse. 

Reason number three and most important of all- Lugo is still capable of providing some decent offensive numbers for the next couple of years. Lowrie is as well, and is probably our shortstop for the foreseeable future. What better way is there to open up a spot for our future shortstop then by showcasing our current shortstop with the intention of trading him by, or even before, the deadline? With his salary and injury situation the way it is right now, Lugo is completely untradeable. But if he plays every day and proves that he has recovered from his quad strain and is still capable with the bat, we might be able to get something back for him and not have to eat most of his salary in the process. And if he proves that he is not capable, despite the fact that he has supposedly come into camp with more muscle and in the “best shape of his career”, then we are going to eat his contract anyway, so we might as well try to see if he’s worth anything.

Of course, trading Lugo would mean having to find a veteran backup utility infielder to replace Lowrie, but I’m sure there will be a few options available when that time comes. 

In the meantime, let’s get him out there and see what he can do.

95 Games?

“We have to be an outstanding club and avoid a lot of valleys during the season, win our 95 games, and get to the postseason.”

This is a direct quote from Theo Epstein a few days ago. For the most part he’s right to say it. After all, since the addition of the Wild Card in ‘95, no American League team has won at least 95 games and not made it to the playoffs. It did happen in the NL in ‘99 when the Reds won 96 but were beaten out in the NL Central by the Astros and in the Wild Card by the Mets, both of whom won 97 games. That must have been a bitter pill to swallow in Cincinnati. 

And guess what Theo, we might just be swallowing a similar tasting pill in 2009, because there is a very real chance that Boston, New York and Tampa Bay might all win 95 or more games and one of us will end up watching the other two teams playing in October.

There is no reason to believe that we can’t win 95 games again this year. On paper, our pitching staff, both starting and the bullpen, should be better and deeper, our defense should be just as good, and our offense should be close to producing the kind of numbers it produced last season. Of course, we’re gambling on quite a few players coming back from injuries, but we have some depth on the bench and on the farm that should allow us to compensate for any deficiencies we may end up with and 95 should be the minimum number of victories we manage to come up with this season.

However the Rays won 97 games last season, they really didn’t lose any significant players, they have some young players such as Evan Longoria and B.J. Upton who are only going to get better, they added Pat Burrell to the mix, they have a slew of young pitchers, led by David Price, to add depth to the pitching staff, and they have some unfinished business to take care of left over from last season.

Speaking of unfinished business, the Yankees haven’t won a World Series title since 2000 and this off-season they signed every future Hall of Fame player available (or at least it sure seemed that way) in an attempt to improve on their 89 wins last season and get to the playoffs and the ultimate goal. I just don’t see how this team is not going to win 95 games.

Unfortunately for someone, one of these three teams is not going to be playing baseball when it matters most, and right now it’s anyone’s guess as to which team that is going to be.

See You Later Manny

Goodbye and good riddance, thanks for the 2 titles, and don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out.

I’ve never been a Manny Ramirez fan, as I’ve noted more than once over the years in my blogs. Yes I admit that there is probably a pretty good chance that we don’t win those two World Series titles without him, and I’m gracious for that, but now it’s time for him to go.

He WAS a great hitter, now he’s only good, but I never cared for the way he played the game. He played it with a lack of respect. He didn’t respect the game, his opponents, his teammates, coaches, management, and although he would try to tell you otherwise, the fans.

We put up with his crap because of what he was capable of doing with his bat, but it’s finally gotten to a point where it is no longer worth dealing with for the production we receive in return. All of this time we kept using the phrase “Manny Being Manny” while simultaneously wondering exactly what it means. Well, now we finally know that “Manny Being Manny” basically means Manny being a jerk. It might not have meant that at the start, but that’s what it means now.

Some people are going to look at this trade as a downgrade and assume that we have substantially decreased our chances of winning this year. I’m sure the Rays and Yankees are ecstatic about it. I will say this, although it may be a downgrade in talent, it does not decrease our chances of winning. Oh, it would have if we were going to get a full effort from Manny for the last 2 months of the season and the playoffs, or at least a full “Manny Ramirez effort”, but that wasn’t going to happen. This guy was going to give up on this team and keeping him around would have decreased our chances of winning more than getting rid of him will, even if we had gotten nothing in return to replace his bat in the lineup. And getting Jason Bay is a pretty good replacement.

In the past, a lot of his antics were tolerated by his teammates and it never really affected the way the team performed. But now we are at a point where it is definitely affecting the way this team plays. We may or may not start winning now that he’s gone, but we weren’t going to win with him here and now at least we have a chance.

If we don’t win, so be it. I’d rather lose without Manny than win and have to continue to root for a whiny multi-millionaire who doesn’t care about anyone but himself.

I don’t care that Ramirez has now joined a list of star Red Sox players who have left here on bad terms and may never come back. I didn’t like him to begin with so that doesn’t bother me at all.

Ramirez has been quoted as saying “The Red Sox don’t deserve a player like me,” and he’s correct. The Red Sox and their fans don’t deserve a player who quits on the team when he doesn’t get what he wants, only plays when he feels like playing and doesn’t give it a 100% effort when he does play. In fact, no team deserves a player like that, but that’s what the Dodgers have to deal with now and that’s what whatever team signs him beyond this year will deal with as well. I’m just glad it won’t be us.

Who Needs The Yankees?

Even before “Fight Night at Fenway” there had been a lot of recent discussion about how the Rays have become a new rival for us. We’ve had our share of scuffles with them in the past, no one will ever forget Pedro shoving the Gerbil to ground, but back in those days the Rays were just not very good and no matter what happened between the lines, it really didn’t matter all that much. No matter what kind of ill feelings two teams might have for each other, you can really only have a rivalry when both teams are actually battling for something, and up until now, that just wasn’t the case.

Here in 2008 things are different, the Rays are good, and they are only going to get better. So now we have two teams in the same division battling it out for a division title and after the events of the last couple of games, there is definitely some ill will floating around. This is not Red Sox/Yankees and it never will be. Although if I was going to compare it to Red Sox/Yankees I would compare it more to the Red Sox/Yankees of the 70’s when some of the players actually didn’t like each other (see Fisk/Munson, Fisk/Piniella, Lee/Nettles) then the more recent rivalry where there is certainly no doubt that we want to beat each other, but not beat up each other.

Anyway, it is certainly making for some drama whenever these two teams meet and it will give us something to get up for when we play them again this season.

Having said all of that, in my opinion, Coco Crisp was wrong. This whole thing started on Wednesday night when Crisp stole second and SS Jason Bartlett dropped his knee in front of the base. Coco thought it was dirty, so later in the game when he attempted to steal again he went in hard against second baseman Akinori Iwamura, who happened to be covering the bag that time and took the brunt of Coco’s ire even though Coco would have preferred that it was Bartlett.

Rays manager Joe Maddon took exception to it and started jawing at Coco in the dugout while he was on the mound during a pitching visit. I think that Maddon was right. Coco says that Bartlett’s play was shady. He says that blocking the bag with your leg is putting the base stealer in jeopardy of being injured. There is no doubt that there is that possibility, but Bartlett is just trying to make a play, I don’t think that he was intentionally trying to get Coco hurt. As Jerry Remy pointed out, if Coco doesn’t like it, he can prevent it by going in feet first. Whenever a player dives into a base head first he is taking the chance of injuring himself, especially his hands. The middle infielder can’t be held responsible for worrying about hurting the base stealer when he’s trying to field the ball and make a tag.

Regardless of your opinion on that, what Coco did next was wrong. If he is trying to take out Iwamura to prevent a double play then fine, that’s just hard baseball. But he was clearly trying to hurt him while attempting to steal a base, he even admitted it afterwards. Joe Maddon is trying to protect his middle infielders by letting Coco know what he thought about his play.

Which brings us to last night. I still think the whole “hitting a guy intentionally to get back for something that someone did before” is ridiculous, but it’s part of the game and we all knew it was going to happen. I give James Shields credit. It was probably not the smartest time for him to do it, second inning, his team is down by 3 runs, and he’s one of their horses, but with Coco coming to the plate he made up his mind that that was the time and he hit Coco in the thigh, as opposed to going at him high. Coco even gave him credit for that. I also give Shields credit for admitting after the game that that was exactly what he was trying to do and he did it to defend his teammates.

But I think that for the second time in two nights, Coco was wrong. This time by charging the mound. If Shields had thrown at Coco’s head then I would have agreed with Coco’s decision, had he been able to do it then, but because everyone knew it was coming and Shields did it the “right way” it really didn’t warrant a mound charge and bench clearing brawl.

Despite all of that, I think the two people who were the most wrong in this entire thing are Johnny Gomes and Carl Crawford. Catcher Dionar Navarro did the right thing by tackling Crisp to the ground while trying to protect his pitcher, but for Johnny Gomes and Carl Crawford to dive on top of them and start throwing hard punches at Crisp while he’s pinned to the ground is absolutely inexcusable. Someone saw Gomes doing it and he was thrown out, but once MLB gets a look at the tape, Gomes and Crawford are going to be facing suspensions along with Crisp and Shields. I think Crawford, and especially Gomes, should get much higher fines and much longer suspensions than Crisp. Iwamura took a few shots at him as well and he also will probably end up with some kind of suspension, but at least he had an excuse as he was taking out some frustration on Crisp for spiking him the night before. Gomes on the other hand, charged out of the dugout with causing damage his only intent. It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out.

I don’t know what went on in the dugout between Kevin Youkilis and Manny Ramirez but the speculation is that Youk was berating Manny for taking his time getting out onto the field during the brawl, and I agree with that. I don’t think this is anything though, I’m sure it’s over and behind them already.

What we really need to be concerned about is Jacoby Ellsbury’s wrist. Although my last entry was about how deep this team is and how it can sustain an injury to a starting pitcher and a big hitter, there are only so many injuries any team can sustain before it starts to take it’s toll. It sounds like this is nothing major and Ellsbury may only miss a few days so let’s hope so.

Lost amidst all the action last night was the fact that Chris Carter got his first Major League hit in his first ML at bat. I love those moments in this game. It didn’t do him much good though as he was sent back to Pawtucket immediately after the game in favor of Brandon Moss who is the better defender with the possible absence of Ellsbury for a few games.

By sweeping the Rays we’ve taken back first place in the AL East.

Speaking of teams not being able to sustain injuries, let’s hope that Paul Pierce is ready to go for game two, and beyond.